'Irrational response' may trigger India-Pak nuke war: Declassified US reports

MUMBAI: Amid nationwide outrage over Pahalgam massacre , declassified US intelligence reports from the 1980s and 90s released on Wednesday say that the possibility of war between India and Pakistan remains low but a “miscalculation or irrational response” may turn a conventional war into nuclear exchanges.

The release refers to a 1981 US intelligence estimate titled “India’s Reaction to Nuclear Developments in Pakistan ,’’ which evaluated the possibility of an Indian attack on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities should developments in that country threaten India’s security.

“India would probably take a wait and see approach before striking in Pakistan and make a decision based on whether Pakistan produced nuclear weapons or stockpiled them,” says Special National Intelligence Estimate (SNIE), which forms a part of the reports.

Accompanying SNIE is a state department memo, also published for the first time quoting a study by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the expected radiological consequences of an Indian attack on Karachi Nuclear Power Plant . The Livermore study says that Karachi “could suffer heavy casualties” under such a scenario.

As per the reports when Pakistan lost the 1971 war with India, it redoubled President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto ’s interest in a nuclear weapons program even if it meant that his country would have to “eat grass” to pay for it.

Indian strategists viewed a preventive attack as dangerous because a Pakistani counterattack on India’s nuclear installations could cause similar harm. During the years that followed, the possibility of Indian preventive action remained a concern to Reagan administration because Pakistan was continuing its nuclear weapons program.