Matthew Schaefer: Is the 2025 NHL No. 1 pick ready for the big league?

The 2025 NHL Draft is just around the corner, and while there’s no doubt that Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer is the favorite to go No. 1 overall, there’s still a big question mark hanging over his head: will he be ready for the NHL next season? After the New York Islanders won the draft lottery, Schaefer’s path to the top pick is all but set, but the journey to the big leagues may be more complicated than it first appears.

Can Matthew Schaefer overcome setbacks and step into the NHL?
Normally, the No. 1 pick in the NHL draft is expected to make an immediate impact in the league. In fact, the trend has been that every first-overall pick since Erik Johnson in 2006 has either played or been called up to the NHL at some point in their rookie season. So, if Schaefer goes No. 1, that would likely mean he’s expected to suit up for the Islanders next fall, right?


Here’s where things get a bit tricky. Schaefer, despite his immense talent, didn’t get to play a full season in the OHL. He had to sit out the first part of last season due to mononucleosis, and then his season was cut even shorter when he broke his collarbone during the World Junior Championship. He ended up playing just 17 games, leaving a lot of scouts and fans wondering: is he ready for the NHL? Would sending him back to junior hockey be a better move for his long-term development?

Michael Misa: The ready-to-play prospect for the top NHL spot
While Schaefer is clearly the most talked-about prospect, there’s another player who might be more ready to step into the NHL right now: Michael Misa. Misa, who has three full seasons of junior hockey under his belt, brings with him a list of accomplishments that include a Memorial Cup and an eye-popping 62 goals and 134 points last season. He might not have the same upside as Schaefer, but Misa could be a safer bet for a team looking for immediate impact.


The New York Islanders’ dilemma: Choosing the right path for their No. 1 pick
The Islanders, who are likely to take Schaefer with the No. 1 pick, now find themselves in a bit of a dilemma. Schaefer is undoubtedly a high-ceiling prospect, but after missing so much time over the past season, sending him back to junior hockey for another year to fully recover and develop might make more sense. On the other hand, with Misa being more ready to play in the NHL, the Islanders could look elsewhere if they’re in need of a player who can contribute right away.

It’s a tough decision that could shape the Islanders' future, but one thing’s clear: the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft might not be as straightforward as it seems.

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