ICE, ICE Baby: Trump's immigration budget under One Big Beautiful Bill Act may cost $1tn, 6mn jobs

The US House of Representatives recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a budget reconciliation measure that significantly ramps up immigration enforcement funding. While the bill makes sweeping changes to federal spending, its most notable provision is a planned $168 billion allocation for immigration and border law enforcement, which experts say could reshape federal law enforcement priorities and trigger long-term economic and labour market shocks.

One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Key highlights on immigration

• The bill earmarks $168 billion for immigration enforcement over a 10-year period.
  
  
• Analysts warn this could balloon to nearly $1 trillion in actual costs when factoring in mass deportation consequences.
  
  
  
• An estimated 5.9 million jobs may be lost, including 2.6 million US-born workers, due to increased deportations.
  
  
• Immigration enforcement would account for 87% of federal law enforcement spending under the new regime.
  

While pitched as a one-time spending effort, experts argue the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will cement permanent budget obligations and drive mass deportation policies that shrink the US workforce, reduce consumer demand, and raise national debt. Critics say this move could destabilise multiple sectors and push the US closer to recession-like conditions.

Enforcement spending could surpass all other agencies combined
According to an analysis by David J. Bier from the Cato Institute, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate for the bill undercounts its true fiscal impact. The official projection limits the cost to $168 billion, assuming a gradual spend-down across a decade. But Bier argues that the Trump administration is likely to fast-track this spending, potentially exhausting the amount within four years.

The bill mandates the hiring of 10,000 ICE agents and expansion of detention capacity, raising the possibility of detaining more than 200,000 people at a time. By 2028, Bier estimates, immigration enforcement spending may reach $80 billion per year—five times that of all other federal law enforcement combined.

“Congress is not going to let the wall collapse, force the firing of hundreds of unionised law enforcement officers, or drastically cut their pay,” Bier noted.

If the government sustains even half of this new spending by 2035, the true cost would exceed $100 billion more than advertised.

Disappearing jobs
According to economist Ben Zipperer of the Economic Policy Institute, the deportation goals backed by the bill would significantly reduce US employment. Drawing from historical data, Zipperer projects that if the Trump administration carries out its target of 1 million deportations annually, the economy would lose 5.9 million jobs over four years, including 3.3 million immigrant jobs and 2.6 million U.S.-born jobs.

“Employment losses would ripple across construction, child care, and consumer services,” Zipperer said. “Child care centres will curtail operations, and parents will work fewer hours due to increased care responsibilities.”

These projections are based on analysis of past immigration enforcement programs like Secure Communities, which linked local law enforcement to federal immigration databases and triggered widespread job losses.
Immigration enforcement vs federal policing
Bier’s analysis shows that when the bill becomes law, immigration enforcement will represent 87% of federal law enforcement expenses—a shift that will likely erode funding for agencies handling tax crimes, firearms trafficking, and organised crime. Spending on IRS enforcement, for example, would be just 1/36th of what immigration enforcement would receive.

The bill also allocates $46.5 billion for wall construction and provides $3.4 billion to support state and local enforcement, further extending federal immigration policing powers.

Economic ripples beyond a decade
The bill's economic implications may outlast the 10-year budget window used in official scoring. Bier warns that the lifetime fiscal cost of deporting millions of immigrants could exceed $5 trillion, especially since deported individuals would have otherwise contributed more in taxes than they consumed in public benefits.

The mass removal of working-age immigrants could also discourage future legal migration, reduce consumption, and suppress wages across the board.

With the bill ready for Trump to sign, the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement agenda now moves closer to implementation. The bill's authors argue it is necessary to restore rule of law and national security. However, analysts caution that the economic consequences could be severe.

“There is no upside to the mass deportations enabled by the Republican budget bill,” Zipperer said. “It will shrink the economy and weaken the labor market for everyone.”