As winter knocks early in the North, will India shiver through a colder-than-usual season this year?

As October rolled in, the Himalayas put on their winter coat earlier than usual. The first week of the month saw popular hill stations like Gulmarg and parts of Himachal Pradesh transform into glistening white landscapes. Tourists were thrilled to witness the early snow, while locals welcomed the chilly breeze after weeks of lingering humidity.

Fresh Snowfall Charms Tourists and Locals

Gulmarg, often known as the jewel of Kashmir, recorded its first snowfall on 2 October, a rare early-season spectacle. Other regions such as Sinthan Top, Rohtang Pass, and the Dhauladhar ranges followed with light to moderate snowfall. The cold winds, misty air, and frozen peaks created postcard-perfect scenes, drawing travellers from across North India.

However, the beauty came with brief disruptions. Intermittent rain, thunderstorms, and icy winds caused temporary traffic halts at Rohtang Pass, while dense fog added a touch of mystery to the hills. For photographers, it was a dreamscape; for locals, an early sign that winter had set in.

Himachal and Uttarakhand Prepare for More Snow

According to Skymet Weather, moderate to heavy rain and isolated snowfall are expected to continue across high-altitude regions of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand until 8 October. Several towns in Himachal, including Dharamsala, McLeodganj, Palampur, Kangra, and Chamba, have already reported a sharp fall in temperature. Minimum readings have dipped to single digits in some places, McLeodganj recorded 9.8°C, Dalhousie 8.6°C, and Dharamsala 16.5°C, confirming that the cold season has truly arrived.

La Niña Could Bring a Colder Winter to North India

Meteorologists predict that North India, including Delhi and NCR, might experience a colder-than-usual winter this year due to La Niña conditions. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), La Niña is expected to develop between October and December.

“We can expect La Niña conditions to set in during the next few months. A detailed temperature outlook for the post-monsoon season will be issued soon,” said M Mohapatra, Director General, IMD.

La Niña refers to a natural cooling of the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters, which affects global wind and rainfall patterns. Typically, it brings cooler and wetter conditions across many regions, contrasting with the warming effect of El Niño. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently stated there is a 71% likelihood of La Niña developing between October and December, though the probability decreases to 54% between December and February.

Experts Weigh In on La Niña’s Impact

Meteorologists believe that La Niña could intensify western disturbances (WDs), leading to heavier snowfall in the northern hills and cooler winds sweeping across the plains. Experts note that while the upcoming winter may not be harsh, it is likely to be noticeably colder than usual. During La Niña years, snowfall often increases and WDs become more active, enhancing the overall chill across North India.

However, he added that multiple weak western disturbances might interrupt the flow of cold northerly winds, resulting in short spells of below-normal temperatures rather than a long cold phase.

Climate Change May Offset Cooling Trends

While La Niña typically indicates a cooler winter, experts caution that global warming is increasingly offsetting its effects. “In the past, La Niña would noticeably cool the planet, but that’s no longer a certainty,” experts explained, adding that shifting climate patterns are altering the way the atmosphere responds to such natural phenomena.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also cautioned that natural climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña are now playing out against the backdrop of human-induced climate change, intensifying extreme weather events and altering seasonal trends across the globe.

Inputs from agencies